escape of over 4,000 prisoners — including some of Port-au-Prince’s most notorious gang leaders — Haiti would soon see the return of the violence

escape of over 4,000 prisoners — including some of Port-au-Prince’s most notorious gang leaders — Haiti would soon see the return of the violence and criminality that had plagued the country in recent years. It was assumed, however, that as long as U.S. forces were present throughout the country, violence would be minimal; the real trouble would emerge once American troops began to withdraw. “Right now we’ve got (foreign) military crawling all over the island,” USIP’s Bob Perito explained at the time. “But they won’t be there forever.”

Judging from reports in the Washington Post and the Associated Press within the last week, it appears that events in Haiti are unfolding very much along the lines predicted by Perito and others. U.S. troops have been drawing down steadily in the last two months; what remains is a force of roughly 2,000 engineers and logisticians tasked with rubble-clearing and reconstruction. Meanwhile, the escaped gang leaders have reconstituted their posses and are now competing for control of their old turf. Kidnappings have increased in recent weeks, forcing aid groups to impose curfews and implement increased security measures. The gangs regularly terrorize vulnerable Haitians in the settlement camps throughout Port-au-Prince.

Gang members have also grown increasingly brazen in confronting the Haitian National Police (HNP), a force which was badly damaged in the quake, but has since established a reasonable patrolling presence throughout the capital city. Postcorrespondent Manuel Roig-Franzia described an incident in which gang members assaulted an HNP checkpoint, slaughtering a veteran of the force; HNP officers, according to Roig-Franzia, are frequently outgunned by the well-armed criminals.

Needless to say, in the months ahead, MINUSTAH — the 9,000-strong, Brazilian-led UN peacekeeping force in Haiti — and the HNP will be put to the test. Not only is gang violence likely to increase, but the two forces will be expected to provide security and stability prior to the postponed parliamentary and presidential elections, which are likely to be held late this year. Adding to the challenge, national police chief Mario Adresol has cited concerns, according to the Post, that political parties may be sponsoring and supporting armed groups in order to threaten opponents and otherwise create disorder prior to the elections — a tactic not without precedent in Haiti’s recent history.